The American and Israeli bombardment of Iran is now entering its second week. The intensity of the firepower directed at Iran during the first week has been unprecedented. The military achievements attained thus far are also immense—nearly without precedent—and will undoubtedly be studied in military academies around the world for years to come.

At the same time, it is perfectly clear to all parties involved in this campaign—both on the American side and on the Iranian side—that aerial bombardment alone will not bring about a change of regime in Iran.

The United States and its partners have neither a real desire nor, most likely, the capability to occupy Iran on the ground (whether fully or partially) and impose regime change by force of arms. The enormous economic and political cost of such a move—compared with which the American occupation of Iraq would appear like a child’s game—renders it an unrealistic fantasy. President Trump has spoken explicitly on this matter, and it is worth listening carefully to what he has said.

Accordingly, regime change in Iran can only occur as the result of a popular revolution, in which millions of Iranians from all sectors of society simultaneously take to the streets, seize centers of power (all or some of them), and compel the current regime to relinquish control.

Such a transition could also occur through a coup—military or political—in which elements of the Iranian elite that are currently outside the ruling establishment persuade, by force or by other means, the remnants of the regime to hand over control of the state. However, at present the prospects for either a popular revolution or a military or political coup do not appear particularly high. There is little reason to believe that several additional weeks of aerial bombardment—even if they continue at their current intensity (which itself is doubtful)—will significantly increase the likelihood of either a revolution or a coup.

The reason is simple: for more than forty years the Iranian regime has developed and refined sophisticated repression mechanisms designed to ensure its survival in extreme scenarios, including situations of severe external military pressure. One of these mechanisms is the notorious Basij forces.

The Basij—a semi-military militia composed of the segments of the population most loyal to the regime—numbers, according to foreign reports, more than 13.5 million members and is capable of deploying approximately 1.5 million security personnel at any given moment. Even if there is genuine desire among the Iranian public or among segments of the Iranian elite to replace the current regime—and even if there is willingness to pay the high personal and collective price involved—the repression........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)