Image:Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes French President Emmanuel Macron in New Delhi during bilateral talks, with strategic cooperation and the upcoming AI Impact Summit 2026 high on the agenda.Credit: DD News / india.gov.in

The Iranian drone attack on Cyprus this week led to an emergency summit on the island between French President Emmanuel Macron and the prime ministers of Cyprus and Greece.

The meeting was accompanied by the deployment of French air-defense systems to Cyprus and the entry of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle into the Eastern Mediterranean. The carrier is expected to arrive near Cyprus in the coming days. Greece also contributed a destroyer and four F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets.

Beyond the immediate security response, the leaders also discussed the broader geopolitical consequences of the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran — particularly its potential impact on global trade routes and energy flows.

Cyprus and Greece are deeply involved in the planning of the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, the emerging trade corridor linking India, the Gulf, Israel, and Europe. Their ports sit at the maritime gateway to the European continent, and several proposed oil and gas pipeline projects connecting the Middle East to Europe are expected to pass through the region.

At the same time, China’s competing global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), relies heavily on Iran as a key transit hub connecting Asia to Europe.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the importance of the emerging India–Israel–Greece–Cyprus strategic connection during his visit to Israel just two days before the outbreak of the war with Iran. In his concluding remarks, Modi emphasized the strategic significance of the IMEC corridor.

He also referred to the I2U2 Group initiative — a partnership between India, Israel, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates aimed at expanding cooperation in high technology, energy, agriculture, and innovation.

Within this framework India seeks to expand its capabilities in artificial intelligence, cyber technologies, civilian nuclear energy, space technologies, and advanced precision agriculture.

Macron’s involvement in the region is not surprising. One week before Modi’s visit to Israel, the French president met the Indian prime minister at an international summit on artificial intelligence held in New Delhi. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also attended the summit, and shared strategic interests such as global trade corridors were part of the discussions.

These initiatives received additional momentum following the signing of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement at the end of November 2025.

Modi also addressed regional trade connectivity during his visit to Cyprus in June 2025, where discussions included maritime routes and strategic cooperation amid growing tensions with Turkey.

At first glance, the trade corridor linking India to Europe could gain significant momentum if the outcome of the war weakens Iran’s regional position. Such a development may also reduce the political risks surrounding India’s investments in Iran’s Chabahar port.

Meanwhile, the United States has relaxed certain restrictions on India’s purchases of Russian oil, partly in an effort to stabilize global energy markets and prevent further increases in oil prices.

However, a key question remains: how will China respond to the geopolitical consequences of the war for its strategic interests in Iran?

In 2021 China signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement with Iran worth an estimated $400 billion. Approximately $280 billion were designated for energy purchases and $120 billion for infrastructure investments, including modernization of ports, expansion of oil and gas pipelines, transportation networks, railways, and roads. Much of this infrastructure is intended to support China’s Belt and Road trade routes through Iran.

Some analysts note that in the short term China may not suffer significantly from rising energy prices due to its large strategic reserves and the discounted oil and gas it purchases from Iran, often paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars.

However, a potential regime change in Iran could place China in a very different strategic environment regarding its BRI trade corridor. Chinese analysts have already expressed concern about the possible geopolitical implications for Beijing’s global strategy linking Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

The strategic relationship between Iran and China has also served as a safeguard for Beijing against potential sanctions or economic pressure from the United States in the broader geopolitical competition between the two powers.

In the short term China might even benefit if the United States becomes entangled in a prolonged conflict and global energy prices rise — developments that could affect Western economies more than China’s.

But if the war leads to regime change in Iran and to a geopolitical realignment favoring American interests, China could choose to respond indirectly, potentially by increasing pressure in other strategic theaters such as the South China Sea or around Taiwan.

For Washington, this means that major geopolitical shifts resulting from the war with Iran could have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)