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Turkey’s Shift: From Neutral Mediator to Strategic Adversary

26 0
19.02.2026

Turkey’s evolving relationship with the Republic of Somaliland is characterized by a marked departure from neutrality. Initially positioned as a mediator between Somaliland and Somalia, Turkey has transitioned into a staunch supporter of the Federal Government of Somalia, actively advancing Mogadishu’s interests at the expense of Somaliland’s sovereignty and stability.

Breakdown of Mediation and Emerging Bias

Since 2013, Turkey assumed the role of principal mediator in talks between Somaliland and Somalia. However, Somaliland officials and analysts contend that Turkey’s mediation was neither impartial nor constructive. Rather than facilitating genuine dialogue, Turkey’s approach stalled Somaliland’s progress while simultaneously strengthening Mogadishu’s institutions. The insistence on Somalia’s unity as a non-negotiable baseline undermined Somaliland’s pursuit of a two-state solution. Furthermore, Turkey failed to enforce agreements related to airspace management and the equitable distribution of international aid, allowing Mogadishu to violate these terms without consequence.

The 2024 Maritime Defense Pact

A pivotal moment occurred with the February 2024 Defense and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. This pact granted Turkey a ten-year mandate to defend Somalia’s maritime zones, which Mogadishu claims include Somaliland’s extensive coastline. Somaliland’s government rejected the agreement, citing it as a grave violation of international law. The prospect of Turkish warships in the Gulf of Aden was perceived as an attempt to blockade the Berbera Corridor and intimidate Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa.

Diplomatic Maneuvers: The Ankara Process

Following the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Turkey initiated the “Ankara Process.” This diplomatic effort aimed to persuade Ethiopia to rescind its recognition of Somaliland in exchange for commercial port access elsewhere. In February 2026, President Erdogan visited Addis Ababa to lobby Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed against recognizing Somaliland, framing the MoU as a threat to regional peace. Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned this intervention as unacceptable interference.

The Israel Factor and Double Standards

Turkey’s response to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 further exacerbated tensions. President Erdogan labeled Israel’s recognition as illegitimate, despite Turkey’s own strategic relations with Israel. Critics in Somaliland highlighted the hypocrisy, noting Turkey’s condemnation of Somaliland’s diplomatic efforts while maintaining its own ties with Israel. Ankara’s rhetoric of “Islamic brotherhood” was seen as an attempt to delegitimize The Republic of Somaliland’s secular and democratic achievements.

Economic Favoritism and Resource Exploitation

Turkey’s betrayal is also evident in its economic policies. Over $1 billion in aid and infrastructure has been directed to Mogadishu, with Turkish firms managing key assets such as the port and airport. Recent oil exploration deals have granted Turkish companies’ significant maritime revenue and exclusive rights. Somaliland views these actions as Turkey “selling” resources that do not belong to Mogadishu, effectively funding a proxy state to the detriment of Somaliland.

Historic Recognition and Regional Fallout

Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland on December 26, 2025, marked a significant shift in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape. The agreement, signed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), was framed as an extension of the Abraham Accords. Israel sought security cooperation, including naval and intelligence access in the Gulf of Aden, and pledged civilian aid in critical sectors. Contentious reports suggested discussions about Somaliland hosting Palestinian refugees, sparking protests in Mogadishu and outrage in Ankara.

Turkey’s Formal Response

Turkey led international opposition to Somaliland’s recognition, viewing it as a direct challenge to its Defense and Economic Cooperation Framework with Somalia. President Erdogan publicly condemned Israel’s move as illegal and null under international law. Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs characterized the recognition as a violation of the UN Charter, and Ankara convened an Extraordinary Session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to collectively reject the move. Turkey’s reaction was also motivated by economic interests, including plans to fast-track a spaceport project and offshore oil drilling in Somalia, ventures reliant on Mogadishu’s claim over The Republic of Somaliland’s waters.

Summary of Key Reactions

Somaliland: Celebrated recognition as validation of decades of self-rule and a boost to economic and security prospects.

Israel: Pursued strategic interests in the Red Sea, countering regional threats and expanding the Abraham Accords.

Turkey: Adopted a hostile stance, prioritizing the unity of Somalia and safeguarding substantial investments.

Somalia: Viewed recognition as an existential threat and an act of fragmentation.

Turkey shifted from a neutral mediator to a strategic adversary against Somaliland by supporting Somalia’s claims, signing a maritime defense pact affecting Somaliland’s coastline, opposing Somaliland’s diplomatic recognition by Israel, and prioritizing economic and military interests in Somalia, actions that have led to regional tensions and condemnation from The Republic of Somaliland and its allies.


© The Times of Israel (Blogs)