The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has increasingly extended beyond the Nile Basin into the Horn of Africa. For Egypt, Nile water security is an existential issue, while Ethiopia views the GERD as a symbol of development, sovereignty, and regional influence. Against this backdrop, Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition has become intertwined with the broader rivalry between Cairo and Addis Ababa.

Egypt’s opposition to Somaliland’s recognition is often framed as support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. However, it is also part of a wider strategy to limit Ethiopia’s political, economic, and military influence while the GERD dispute remains unresolved. Cairo sees any diplomatic gain for Ethiopia as potentially strengthening Addis Ababa’s position in negotiations over Nile waters.

The Ethiopia–Somaliland Agreement

A major turning point occurred in January 2024 when Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The agreement would grant Ethiopia access to a section of Somaliland’s coastline near Berbera for commercial and naval purposes, while Ethiopia would consider recognizing Somaliland as an independent state.

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