History After Prophecy
The Meme That Started My Thinking
A few years ago, I came across one of those ubiquitous internet memes:
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times.
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times.
Something about it bothered me.
Not because circumstances don’t matter. They clearly do. My instinct was simply to rewrite it.
Hard times can create strong men and weak men. Strong men can create good times and hard times. Good times can create weak men and strong men. Weak men can create hard times and good times.
Hard times can create strong men and weak men. Strong men can create good times and hard times. Good times can create weak men and strong men. Weak men can create hard times and good times.
At the time, I thought I was only objecting to an oversimplified meme. More recently, after listening to discussions of The Fourth Turning and other cyclical philosophies of history, I realized my disagreement was much deeper.
It wasn’t about the meme.
It was about an entire philosophy of history.
The Difference Between Shape and Cause
The appeal of cyclical history is obvious. It offers order in place of chaos. Every crisis becomes another turn of the wheel. History appears understandable, even predictable.
I understand the attraction. My concern is that these theories often confuse morphology with etiology. Morphology is the shape of something. Etiology is what caused it.
Medicine makes the distinction obvious. Two patients may arrive with the same symptoms—fever, rash, and fatigue. Their illnesses share the same morphology. Yet........
