Following the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, many observers may have embraced the false assumption that the US military had become a paper tiger. Mao Zedong popularized the idea of the “Paper Tiger.” This is a Chinese idiom for someone or something that appears powerful but is actually weak, ineffectual, and unable to withstand challenges.

On Jan 3, 2026, the US military engaged in a military operation against Venezuela. In one period of darkness, the US military was able to exfiltrate the head of a hostile nation from the inside of a fortified facility, destroy the radar systems, and neutralize all hostile forces. Not a single US service member was killed during the operation. Before the Venezuela raid, some believed the US military lacked the capability to carry it out.

Extraordinarily, a Chinese delegation led by Special Envoy for Latin American and Caribbean Affairs,  Qiu Xiaoqi, met with President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas just hours before US forces captured him.  If China knew of the US attack in advance, it seems highly likely they would have warned Maduro, an ally of the Chinese. It appears the Chinese did not know, or simply did not believe, the US was capable of such an action. Whether it was a failure of intelligence or a failure of imagination, China failed.

Chinese military strategy, and in particular, China’s interest in Taiwan, remains front of mind for US defense planning.  US Admiral Phil Davidson warned in 2021 that China could develop the military capability to seize Taiwan by 2027. Known as the “Davidson Window”, this 2021–2027 timeframe has influenced the US Pacific........

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