In my last column, I argued that the reported Trump-Netanyahu blowup mattered less than the strategic realities beneath it. The United States and Israel had similar but not identical interests. Washington was trying to prevent a wider regional conflict that could threaten energy markets and complicate broader strategic priorities. Israel was trying to restore deterrence after October 7 and press its advantage against Iran and its proxies while the opportunity remained. The difference was largely one of emphasis and timing rather than ultimate direction.

Two weeks later, speculation about a rupture in the alliance continues and criticism of Netanyahu has intensified. The emerging narrative is that he overplayed his hand, Trump finally pushed back, Iran survived, and Israel now finds itself in a worse strategic position than before the war. That narrative is neat, dramatic, and popular among armchair pundits. It is also almost certainly wrong. More importantly, it is wrong regardless of what the MOU says, whether any official agreement emerges beyond it, or whether Iran honors any commitments whatsoever.

The most revealing reality may be Lebanon. Iran has spent weeks trying to link any deal with the US to Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon (and Hezbollah’s resurrection). Iranian statements, echoed by Pakistan and others, continue to press that aim. Washington has denied the linkage, and Jerusalem has not only rejected it but also demonstrated its willingness to endure significant friction with Washington to preserve existing security buffers.

Hezbollah’s renewed rocket fire during a period of active US-Iran diplomacy was part of a manipulative scheme almost certainly orchestrated by Iran: Israel would either retaliate more forcefully, potentially dragging the US back toward a regional war it desires to avoid, or the US would restrain Israel and force linkage of a deal to Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. The first could have trapped Trump in an unwanted war and destabilized regional energy markets. The second would have enabled Hezbollah to rebuild and undermined Israeli deterrence.

But that strategy has thus far failed.........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)