If Trump strikes Iran, what are the scenarios for the Middle East and the world order?

Since the outbreak of the revolt in Iran, at the beginning of January 2026, American rhetoric has brutally hardened. Donald Trump now explicitly links the internal repression of the Iranian regime to a regional strategic threat, openly mentioning the military option. An American strike against Iran would not be a simple tactical episode: it would open up a sequence of heavy consequences for the Middle East and for the already fragile world order.

Several scenarios must be considered, not as abstract hypotheses, but as plausible trajectories in an unstable international system.

The signal scenario: hit to dissuade.

The first scenario is that of a limited and calibrated strike. Objective: to send a clear political message without getting bogged down in open war. Targets would be carefully chosen—military infrastructure, command centers, and sensitive capabilities of the regime—to restore the credibility of US deterrence.

In this logic, Washington would seek to demonstrate that the internal weakening of the Iranian regime does not constitute a strategic white paper. Tehran’s response would probably be measured: indirect responses, cyberattacks, and pressures via regional relays, but without “crossing” the threshold of an uncontrollable escalation.........

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