Iran war, EU transition, China dominance: Europe’s energy dilemma
Five weeks into the war involving Iran, the global energy system is no longer facing a temporary disruption. It is entering a structural shift.
The real risk is not that Europe moves too slowly on the energy transition, but that it moves too quickly without reshaping the industrial foundations behind it.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows disrupted, prices have surged, raising fears of a prolonged crisis with global economic consequences. European officials are already framing the situation in stark terms. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned this week that even a rapid de-escalation would not restore normality anytime soon.
The message from Brussels has been unusually direct: reduce consumption, travel less, work remotely where possible. In parallel, European governments are being urged to accelerate the rollout of renewable energy at scale.
At first glance, Europe’s response is coherent: cut fossil use, accelerate renewables, and pursue energy independence.
But this equation — faster transition equals greater autonomy — is increasingly misleading.
The war has exposed........
