Why a ‘blue wave’ today is not necessarily a rejection of Trumpism

November 4, 2026 — 5:00am

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Follow our live coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections here.

Washington: The temptation after a Democratic victory at today’s midterm elections – if that is indeed what transpires – will be to parse the results as Americans turning the page on Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. But that could be a dangerous mistake.

At the 2018 midterms, during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained 40 seats and took control of the House of Representatives. Americans removed Trump from office two years later, and, amid an onslaught of criminal charges, he seemed destined for the dustbin of political history.

As we know, voters felt otherwise. Trump achieved a bigger victory in 2024 than 2016 – despite, and possibly because of, everything Americans knew about him and his policies.

Their vote was not necessarily a wholesale embrace of Trump the man, but a rejection of the Democrats after four years of Joe Biden. The Trump agenda at the time – lower prices, no new foreign wars, tariffs, closing the border and dismantling the “woke” agenda – carried the day because it appealed.

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Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull notes Trump won a genuine majority for “his ‘America first’ views, his protectionist views, his view that America should use its power to extract the best deal for itself, and his views that America should not be overly concerned about its allies”.

Trump himself may be historically unpopular – and that........

© The Sydney Morning Herald