A blue tidal wave is coming for Trump. But some polling experts are nervous

Updated November 3, 2026 — 4:36pm,first published 3:50pm

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The polls leading into the US midterm elections are increasingly clear: Democrats are on track for a significant, possibly landslide, victory.

What began as a consensus that Republicans would lose their slim majority in the House of Representatives but likely retain the Senate has become a growing expectation that Democrats will win control of both chambers.

However, some pollsters are nervous about the accuracy of those surveys, and reluctant to predict a “blue wave” will eventuate.

Why? In short, because they are pointing to results that would be unprecedented in some cases, and because they’ve been wrong before.

The most ambitious outcomes currently predicted by the polls are Democrats winning a Senate seat in Texas, turning Ohio, Iowa and Alaska blue, and potentially squeaking home in Kansas – a state that has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate in 94 years.

“The Senate is closer to a tossup than most people think,” GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights told The New York Times. “The prospect of........

© The Sydney Morning Herald