India’s festive economy depends on more than consumer confidence. It also rests on the affordability of the ingredients, gifts and rituals through which families express generosity and belonging. Rising sugar prices therefore expose a policy dilemma: how should India balance energy security with the affordability of food? The timing is significant. Durga Puja, Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali bring a seasonal surge in demand for sweets and confectionery.

Manufacturers and retailers face higher input costs just when customers are preparing to spend. Large businesses may negotiate bulk purchases or absorb some of the increase. Small sweet shops have fewer options: raise prices, reduce margins or offer smaller portions. Weather-related production losses and depleted inventories have tightened domestic supplies, while festive demand has intensified pressure on prices. But the debate cannot end there. India’s drive to achieve 20 per cent ethanol blending in petrol, known as E20, has created competing demands for sugarcane.

Diverting cane juice and molasses towards fuel can reduce the quantity available for sugar production, particularly when harvests disappoint. The policy has a........

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