The return of crude oil to the $100-a-barrel mark last week is a reminder that for all the talk of energy transition, geopolitics still dictates the price of growth. India may have become more adept at navigating global oil shocks than it was a decade ago, but resilience should not be mistaken for immunity.

There is little reason to fear an immediate fuel shortage. Over the past four years, India has fundamentally reshaped its crude import basket, replacing dependence on West Asian suppliers with discounted Russian oil wherever commercially viable. That diversification has given Indian refiners greater flexibility than they possessed during earlier crises. Even if supplies from one source are disrupted, alternative cargoes can be arranged from Russia or other Gulf producers. Yet the real challenge is no longer availability.

It is affordability. When geopolitical tensions simultaneously threaten the Strait of Hormuz and shipping routes through the Red Sea, every alternative barrel becomes more expensive. Russian crude ceases to be a bargain when buyers compete aggressively for limited cargoes. Gulf producers command higher premiums because supply uncertainty itself acquires a price. India........

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