India’s Russian oil purchases have exposed a contradiction in its economic diplomacy: the pursuit of affordable energy can strengthen national interests while creating vulnerabilities that another power can exploit. The US House of Representatives’ passage of legislation authorising President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries buying Russian oil and gas brings that contradiction into sharp focus. Although the measure requires Trump’s signature, the threat alone raises questions about India’s trade relations, energy security and strategic autonomy.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Indian refiners have benefited from crude supplies redirected from Western markets. The purchases helped contain import costs in an economy heavily dependent on overseas energy. But Russia’s growing share of Indian imports has created an exposure extending beyond the oil sector. The United States is a major destination for Indian exports, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, textiles and machinery. Punitive tariffs could therefore affect employment, investment and the balance of payments. The danger is that energy dependence could become bargaining currency in negotiations over wider economic interests.

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