The Black Sea is becoming a test of how far a regional war can spread without drawing neighbouring states into direct confrontation. Repeated drone attacks on merchant vessels near Bulgaria, a member of NATO, have brought that danger into sharp focus. The sinking of a ship with 11 crew members missing, following a fatal incident a few days earlier, demonstrates that commercial shipping is no longer insulated from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The consequences extend well beyond the immediate combatants.

The strategic significance lies in the vulnerability of maritime trade. Russia has sought to constrain Ukraine’s ability to export goods by targeting infrastructure and shipping associated with its ports. Moscow maintains that it is striking vessels carrying weapons and dual-use cargo. Kyiv and its European supporters contend that civilian commercial traffic is also being endangered. Without conclusive evidence establishing responsibility for the latest attacks, accusations must be treated cautiously. Yet the repeated incidents point to a maritime environment in which the distinction........

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