Iran’s attempt to turn the Strait of Hormuz into an instrument of strategic coercion may have given Tehran something years of missile development, proxy warfare and nuclear brinkmanship never quite achieved: the ability to impose an immediate economic cost on countries far beyond the battlefield. Yet this newfound leverage contains the seeds of its own erosion.

The Strait is extraordinarily important because a substantial share of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through its narrow waters. Disrupting that traffic raises freight and insurance costs, unsettles energy markets and transmits the consequences of war to economies thousands of kilometres away. Tehran can therefore exploit geography to compensate for its overwhelming conventional military disadvantage against the United States. But leverage is not the same as victory.

Iran now confronts an unenviable choice. A negotiated reopening of the waterway, accompanied by nuclear concessions and stronger international inspections, could relieve military and economic pressure but allow Washington to claim that force succeeded. Escalation against American forces, commercial shipping or Gulf infrastructure might increase bargaining pressure, but could also widen the........

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