Brazil’s presidential election has entered its decisive phase with a result that says as much about the country’s political transformation as it does about the two men who will contest the runoff on October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is narrow, but politically significant. With almost all votes counted, the margin is only about two percentage points – the closest first-round contest since Brazil’s return to democracy. The striking fact is not merely that Bolsonaro has finished ahead.

It is that the Bolsonaro political brand remains powerful despite Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment over the attempt to overturn the 2022 election result. His son has now demonstrated that the movement can reproduce itself through another member of the family. That makes the October runoff a test of the durability of Brazil’s political polarisation. Yet the first-round result should not be mistaken for a mandate for either side. Flávio has 47 per cent of the valid vote and Lula about 45 per cent; neither has anything resembling a majority of the electorate.

More than 21 per cent of registered voters did not vote, while the candidates eliminated in the first........

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