The hopes of the United States and Israel to bring about quick regime change in Tehran – whether through millions of Iranians taking to the streets or through an internal coup by moderate elements within the Revolutionary Guards – have been disappointed. Attention therefore has increasingly turned to another possibility: organising an uprising of Iran’s ethnic minorities, led by the Kurds, against the rule of the ayatollahs.

According to various reports, these groups have received training and logistical support from intelligence agencies including the CIA and Mossad

According to various reports, these groups have received training and logistical support from intelligence agencies including the CIA and Mossad

Although more than half of Iran’s population consists of Persian Shiites, the country is a mosaic of roughly ten ethnic minorities. Among them are Sunni Baloch, who live mainly along the border with Pakistan (about 2 per cent of the population); Sunni Arabs near the Iraqi border (around 3 per cent); the Lurs, who are predominantly Shiite (about 6 per cent); Sunni Turkmen (around 2 per cent); and the Azerbaijanis, the largest minority group, who make up roughly 20 per cent of the population, The Kurds, who are based in north-western Iran, are mostly Sunni and account for up to 10 per cent of the population.

Because of their ethnic and religious affinity with the Persian majority and their deep integration into Iranian society, the Azerbaijani minority is not expected to organise against the ayatollahs.

In the past, however, a Baloch underground movement operated against the Iranian security forces. It received assistance from Mossad, the CIA and Pakistan’s intelligence service, and carried out acts of sabotage and assassinations of government officials, mainly in the border regions with Pakistan. More than a decade ago, Iranian........

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