These feel like the most significant local elections for a generation. It was a potentially historic day for Reform and Plaid Cymru, with a few caveats. It was a good day for the Greens and the SNP, but not as good as it might have been. It was a disastrous day for Labour, without caveats; a pretty bad day for the Tories, but with some caveats; and a low-key day for the Lib Dems, which will both encourage and infuriate them.

Here’s what we have learned:

1. Reform is in pole position to form the next governmentNigel Farage saw last year’s local elections as proof of concept that he could build a credible electoral force. He saw this year’s as a way of emerging as a national party. By any measure he cleared the hurdle. Nigel Farage has described the results as a ‘historic shift’, with Reform UK on course to win 1,500 seats, double their gains last year, and seizing vast swathes of the Red Wall, which backed Brexit in 2016, Boris Johnson in 2019 and Labour in 2024. Reform won 24 of the 25 seats up for election in Wigan, where Labour lost all 22 seats it was defending; in Halton, Reform won 16 of the 19 seats being contested; and in Salford, Reform won 13 of the 21 contested seats. Havering became Reform’s first London borough. The party also made significant advances in Tory heartlands like Essex and Hampshire. The results also suggest Reform is no longer just a Brexit aftershock. While Farage’s party performed much better in Leave seats than Remain seats, its coalition now appears to combine older Leave voters, anti-immigration voters, culturally conservative working-class Labour defectors and disillusioned ex-Tories. Havering in particular underlined Reform’s ability to turn outer-London grievance politics into real representation.

The results suggest Reform is no longer just a Brexit aftershock

The results suggest Reform is no longer just a Brexit aftershock

2. Farage has three minor concernsThere are two small caveats. Reform’s overall national vote share seems to be down on last year. In some parts of the affluent South, they lost seats because of anti-Reform tactical voting by Labour and Lib Dem supporters who voted Tory to ‘stop Farage’. The third issue is that in Great Yarmouth, home of Rupert Lowe, who left Reform after a spectacular row with Farage, Lowe’s Restore Britain won all 11 seats in the town, running under the banner of Great Yarmouth First. Many in Reform fear being outflanked to their right by Restore Britain. This could be the least significant issue, a minor local squall, or it could yet be the most impactful trend, if Lowe’s people can fight nationally in elections to come.

Is it time to start feeling sorry for Keir Starmer?

What happened to the Green wave?

John O’Neill and Michael Simmons

Mapped: How Reform and Labour fared in your area

3. What does Reform do next?The challenge this result presents is that it will create new tension between the insurgent wing of Reform – who believe that ever more extreme statements on deportations will lead to populist success with working-class voters – and those in the party, such as Danny Kruger and Robert Jenrick, who think the scale of their success means the party has a duty to not........

© The Spectator