Defeat, political implosion and civil war – those are the jeopardies that Volodymyr Zelensky faces as Ukraine heads into the most difficult and probably the last winter of the war. Evermore effective Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure are likely to plunge swaths of the country into cold and darkness. Russian troops continue to push forwards slowly and bloodily in Donbas and, more dangerously, on the southern flank in Zaporizhzhia. Desertions from the Ukrainian army are up four times since last year and the number of deserters now matches the number of active fighters. The US has turned off the money taps and Europe struggles to produce the cash Kyiv needs to keep its war effort going.

But the most damaging crisis of all is a $100 million war profiteering scandal that has implicated many of Zelensky’s closest political allies and personal business partners and rocked faith in the government to the core. ‘It’s difficult to overstate the popular anger in Ukraine over this case,’ reports Jimmy Rushton, a Kyiv-based security analyst. ‘While all of the country suffers blackouts, members of the political elite stand charged with stalling efforts to harden energy infrastructure because they weren’t receiving big enough bribes.’

Zelensky’s public trust has fallen to under 20 per cent, down 40 per cent since the beginning of the year, claims the opposition parliamentarian Yaroslav Zhelezniak. And while the Ukrainian President voiced support for the National Anti Corruption Bureau (Nabu) investigation, so far no senior figures have been arrested. Timur Mindich, co-founder of Zelensky’s Kvartal-95 television production company and the man at the centre of the scandal, fled Ukraine just hours before Nabu raided his flat, leaving behind packs of cash and a golden toilet. Clearly tipped off, Mindich is now reportedly in Israel, which does not extradite its citizens. Herman Halushchenko, the energy minister also named as a suspect by Nabu, has been dismissed but not charged. He has said he will defend himself and ‘prove his position’.

What makes this scandal into a political crisis is that since the summer Zelensky has done everything in his power to shut down Nabu’s investigation. After Nabu surveillance equipment was found in Mindich’s apartment, Ukraine’s SBU........

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