What does ‘victory’ in Ukraine mean – or ‘defeat’? Can there be lasting peace without justice? Direct talks between Russia, the US and Ukraine will finally commence in Abu Dhabi early next month, marking the beginning of the end of this bloody war. As Kyiv and Moscow, plus their respective allies, prepare to thrash out the details of a grand bargain, it’s vitally important to clarify what we mean by ‘victory’ or ‘capitulation’, as those terms get thrown around by politicians observing the war’s closing act.

A hot mess of false starts, betrayals, Russian dissembling and European denunciation lies ahead. And like exhausted sumo wrestlers taking up position on opposite sides of the ring before the final bout, both the Kremlin and Kyiv have, on the eve of talks, retreated to something close to their most maximalist negotiating postures. Vladimir Putin, who clearly believes that the momentum of the war is on his side, will continue playing for time at the negotiating table as his missiles and drones knock seven bells out of Ukraine’s cities in a final push to crush its people’s morale. Ukraine, by the same token, will continue its deep-strike wrecking campaign against Russia’s war production and energy infrastructure. Peace is not close. But the outline of what that peace is going to be – partition, security guarantees short of Nato – is obvious.

Putin has shown Russia to be too weak even to impose its will on its closest backyard

Putin has shown Russia to be too weak even to impose its will on its closest backyard

First and foremost, it’s worth clarifying what talk of Ukraine’s ‘capitulation’ actually means. While the Kremlin has remained grimly inflexible, there is no denying that the focus of the Trump administration’s diplomacy has been essentially on bullying Kyiv into making concessions. Donald Trump cut aid in 2025, and over the past few months has dialled down on US intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, throttled the ability of European countries to buy US military equipment to donate to Ukraine, and reportedly coordinated with Elon Musk to restrict the use of the Starlink mobile internet platform on Ukrainian drones. Volodymyr Zelensky was personally humiliated and told that he ‘had no cards’ in the Oval Office last year, and last week Trump openly called for his ousting. So, yes – Zelensky is being emphatically pushed by Washington to make a deal.

What if, however, after the guns have fallen silent and the new de facto border has been drawn, Ukraine remains free, democratic and emphatically western-aligned? Will it be a capitulation if Ukraine loses land but retains its freedom? That’s precisely the opposite of what Putin set out to achieve, which was to bring Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of........

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