Donald Trump has staked a big chunk of his political credibility on finding peace in Ukraine – and by doing so in partnership with Vladimir Putin, and on the Kremlin’s terms. But is Putin ready to play ball and help save Trump’s backside, politically and economically?

The answer is yes: Putin will probably play along with small gestures like partial ceasefires and prisoner releases. But when it comes to the big stuff like actually stopping what Putin calls his ‘special military operation,’ the Kremlin is likely to stick to its guns and ignore Trump’s special pleading while it continues pulverising Ukraine’s cities.

A summit between China’s Xi Jinping, Putin and Trump in China is being planned to discuss the details of a Yalta-style carve-up of Ukraine, agreed over the heads of the Ukrainians themselves. The Kremlin has apparently suggested a trilateral summit in Shenzhen, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. ‘I think there’s been talks of a meeting,’ Marco Rubio told reporters Monday. ‘I don’t know everything’s been finalised.’

Underlying the Kremlin’s strategic thinking is the idea that Kyiv is just a few months away from military, political and economic collapse. Even though bloody advances by Russia in Donbas this year have been countered by Ukrainian recovery of territory in other sectors, Moscow’s escalating campaign against energy, logistics and transport infrastructure is well on its way to rendering many Ukrainian cities uninhabitable as winter approaches. The fundamental reason that the Kremlin refuses to budge on its main war........

© The Spectator