As of now, it is possible to draw a number of immediate conclusions from the war currently under way between the alliance of the United States and Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Firstly, the range and nature of US and Israeli targeting indicates that a determined attempt to destroy the 47 year old regime in Iran is now finally under way. The most senior leadership, up to and including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, appear to have been targeted – and possibly killed – by Israel. Action of this kind make sense only as part of a comprehensive attempt at regime destruction.

History provides no unambiguous examples of regimes removed by air power alone

History provides no unambiguous examples of regimes removed by air power alone

Secondly, Iran’s response has been immediate and very comprehensive. It has sought to strike at US targets across the region – in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, as well as to target Israel with waves of ballistic missiles and drones. In contrast to previous episodes, where the regime waited and then sought to calibrate and even telegraph its responses, this time it appears to be attempting a comprehensive counter attack, sensing that it is now in a war for survival. Given the statements by both president Donald Trump and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the pattern of the attacks, it’s clear that as of now, there is no diplomatic off-ramp available.

But while Iran’s targeting in its attempted counter attack has been broad, the results appear limited. One person died as a result of falling debris, following a missile attack on Abu Dhabi. For the most part, the Iranian attacks caused only limited damage. This appears to attest to the damage suffered by Iranian capacities at the hands of Israel and the US a year ago, and the failure of the........

© The Spectator