Of all Labour’s heartlands, none has more mythos or magic than Wales. Its history of pits and pulpits produced Nye Bevan and Neil Kinnock; a quarter of the party’s leaders have held seats here. More than a century ago, Keir Hardie forged Labour’s rise from the Valleys in Merthyr Tydfil. In a fortnight’s time, those same valleys could finish his namesake off.

A focus group there one recent Friday night reveals just how bad things are for Keir Starmer’s party. In a community centre, surrounded by gym equipment and sports trophies, voters asked where it all went wrong. ‘I had complete faith when Labour got in this time and nothing seems to have happened,’ remarks one woman.

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Each of the eight voters in the group backed Labour in 2024 – but all were now mulling change. Having topped every Welsh election since 1999, Starmer’s party could come third on 7 May. Voters blame economic pressures but also the government’s failures. New answers are sought. The overspill of asylum seekers from Cardiff is raised by one woman: ‘People are getting pushed further and further up the Valleys… Merthyr in particular, because it’s a cheaper place to live, is being used as a dumping ground.’

The willingness to embrace change is a story playing out across Wales. I attended five focus groups with More in Common and, despite queasiness about Labour, no voter openly said they would back Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 7 May. Several disparaged the surge of Conservative defectors: what impresses in Tory shires might........

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