After a century of hegemony, Welsh Labour is set for an historic wipe out tonight. Results for the 96-man Senedd are still coming in but all signs point to the natural party of Welsh government being consigned to a distant third place. Both Plaid Cymru and Reform have been effective in recent weeks in squeezing the Labour vote by framing the Welsh elections as a two-horse race. Much as we saw in the Caerphilly by-election, it looks like Labour has been squeezed out of the contest.

That means a very bad evening looms for Eluned Morgan, first minister since 2024. She has lost in Ceredigion Penfro and thus become the first sitting head of government in the United Kingdom in modern times to lose her seat. Amid talk of the ‘Welsh Portillo moment’, Morgan has said she will resign as leader, with a party spokesman telling the BBC that Labour is expecting to return only ‘around 10’ Senedd members – it had 30 before this election. With 49 seats necessary for a majority, Plaid Cymru and its leader Rhun ap Iorwerth are expected to win........

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