‘Donald Trump is a complicated person with simple ideas,’ said Kellyanne Conway, the former White House senior counsellor. ‘Way too many politicians are the exact opposite.’ It’s a good way of understanding the 45th and 47th US President and his extraordinary success. His turbulent personality causes mayhem, yet his political aims have remained constant, straightforward and popular.

Decades ago, as a New York tycoon with a keen eye on international affairs, he identified three priorities for America: tackle the nation’s trade imbalances, force Nato allies to spend more on defence, and destroy terrorists.

When it comes to realising those simple ideas, however, his more complex attributes emerge. Trump believes in mixing intimidation with diplomacy, war with peace and common sense with confusion. ‘We have to be unpredictable, starting now,’ he said, back in 2016, and his second administration has turned that madman theory into an operational tour de force. To advance his trade agenda, he freaked out the financial system through a bonkers array of punitive tariffs. To show Latin America’s narco-states he meant business, he kidnapped Nicolas Maduro. To bring Nato members to heel, he threatened to annex Greenland. Most brain-melting of all, he inaugurated a ‘Board of Peace’ for the Middle East as he set about waging war.

Most brain-melting of all, he inaugurated a ‘Board of Peace’ as he set about waging war

Most brain-melting of all, he inaugurated a ‘Board of Peace’ as he set about waging war

But Operation Epic Fury, his assault on Iran, has exposed once again the limits of American power, as well as the shortcomings of the madman approach. A bold president armed with the most awesome military the world has ever seen can achieve a lot. But he cannot control the global price of energy or the internal power dynamics of very different, very hostile countries. 

‘I knew oil prices would go up if I did this,’ said Trump on Monday. ‘And they’ve gone probably less than I thought they would go up.’ His bravado was unconvincing. One of Trump’s pet obsessions is bringing down the price of what Americans call gas, and war with Iran is having the opposite effect. At Mar-a-Lago last weekend, advisers and donors sought to impress upon the President the inflationary consequences of an oil spike, which is why, having ended last week demanding ‘unconditional surrender’, he began this week insisting his Iranian ‘excursion’ would ‘very soon’ be over. ‘I think the war is very complete, pretty much,’ he said. 

‘Short-term’ pain will lead to long-term benefit, insist Trump and his advisers. But campaigning for November’s midterm elections has already begun and Republican party strategists are all too aware that is not a winning message.

Last week, Trump tried to gin up markets by promising........

© The Spectator