Every drone Ukraine fires at a Russian oil terminal is meant to defund Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Right now, each one may be doing the opposite.

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure are intended to starve Moscow of the budget revenues that fund its war machine. The logic is straightforward: disrupt exports, reduce revenues, constrain the war effort. Kyiv has been explicit about this: Ukrainian officials consistently frame attacks on oil terminals as direct hits on Russia’s war chest, treating every barrel that cannot be shipped as a rouble that cannot be spent on missiles or mobilisation.

Reuters puts the scale of that disruption in stark terms – at least 40 per cent of Russia’s crude export capacity, roughly 2 million barrels per day, is currently offline. This is the result of Ukrainian drone attacks combined with the Druzhba pipeline pumping oil from Russia to Hungary being offline and crackdowns on the shadow fleet of oil tankers lurking in European waters.

Oil is now above $100 (£75) per barrel

Oil is now above $100 (£75) per barrel

The strikes have been precise and damaging. On the night of 22 March, Ukrainian drones hit Primorsk,........

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