In recent weeks, El Niño has re-entered public discourse, frequently appearing in weather updates and policy conversations. While it originates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, its influence stretches far beyond, altering atmospheric patterns that directly affect India’s monsoon. For a country where nearly 70 per cent of annual rainfall is delivered during the monsoon season, even subtle disruptions can have far-reaching implications. At its core, El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming weakens the trade winds that typically push moisture-laden air towards the Indian subcontinent. As a result, the monsoon-India’s climatic lifeline-can become erratic. Rainfall may arrive late, pause unpredictably, or fall in short, intense bursts rather than being evenly distributed. Such variability often proves more damaging than an outright deficit. Agriculture, water management, and rural livelihoods depend not just on how much rain falls, but when and how it does. A delayed monsoon can disrupt sowing cycles, while prolonged dry spells followed by sudden downpours can damage crops and reduce yields. India’s historical experience with El Niño underscores its significance. Several major El Niño years-including 1965-66, 1972-73, 1987-88, 2002, 2009, and 2015-16-were associated with drought-like conditions, reduced agricultural output, and economic stress. The 1987-88 episode, for instance, led to one of the most severe droughts in recent history, affecting vast regions and exposing vulnerabilities in water and food systems. However, the........

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