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Will the Middle East transform into a strategic node in global trade?

27 0
05.07.2026

Since the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi on 9 September 2023, the discussion has no longer been limited to a new logistics connectivity project. It has expanded into a broader vision for redrawing the lines of trade, investment, energy, and data flows between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The Memorandum of Understanding signed by India, the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, and Italy stated clearly that the project consists of an eastern corridor linking India to the Gulf region and a northern corridor linking the Gulf region to Europe. It also made clear that the initiative is not limited to transport alone, but also includes railways, port connectivity, data cables, electricity lines, and clean hydrogen infrastructure.

However, what is being discussed in some analytical and policy circles under what may be described analytically as “IMEC Plus” reflects an important evolution in the understanding of the project. The idea is no longer merely a corridor for moving goods, but a broader platform for integrating trade, industry, energy, Digitalisationn, value chains, and strategic investment within a single route. In other words, the project in its expanded form is not only about shortening the distance between India and Europe. It is about reorganising the economic geography of the region between them - the Arab world and the Middle East - as part of a new structure of production and connectivity, rather than as a mere transit zone. This interpretation is also clearly reinforced by the joint EU-India strategic agenda adopted on 27 January 2026, which linked IMEC directly to the objectives of diversifying trade routes, strengthening supply chains, and enhancing maritime, digital, and energy connectivity.

Why Is the Project Gaining Such Importance Now?

The answer is linked, first, to the transformation of the global trade environment. International trade is no longer driven only by the logic of efficiency and cost. It is increasingly shaped by economic security, risk diversification, logistics resilience, and the repositioning of supply chains. The disruptions in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal since late 2023 revealed the vulnerability of the global trading system when it depends on a limited number of sensitive corridors. According to estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Suez Canal carried between 12 per cent and 15 per cent of global trade in 2023, before the volume of trade passing through it declined by 42 per cent in just two months with the onset of the Red Sea disruptions in early 2024.

In its latest report on maritime transport, issued on October 22, 2024, UNCTAD explained that the situation had deteriorated further by mid-2024. Cargo volumes transiting the Gulf of Aden had fallen by 76 per cent, while cargo volumes transiting the Suez Canal had declined by 70 per cent. At the same time, arrivals via the Cape of Good Hope increased by 89 per cent. More importantly, this shift was not merely a change of route. Because alternative routes are longer, it increased global demand for ship “tonne-miles” by 3 per cent and raised demand for container ships by 12 per cent.

These figures explain why thinking about alternative or complementary corridors such as IMEC has become more urgent. The issue is not simply the creation of a new route, but the establishment of a broader structure that can reduce excessive dependence on a single bottleneck, particularly at a global moment marked by increasing geopolitical disruption and pressure on maritime transport. UNCTAD also estimates that disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama pushed the........

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