The expiry of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire framework should not be treated as merely another missed diplomatic deadline. It is a warning that the Middle East is entering a more dangerous phase: one in which temporary restraints are disappearing faster than a durable political settlement can be built. The Islamabad memorandum, reached after Pakistan-mediated talks, was intended to halt military operations and provide 60 days for negotiations toward a broader settlement. That period has now expired without the promised breakthrough. The immediate temptation will be to ask who is responsible for the failure. Washington and Tehran already blame each other. Iran says the United States violated the understanding and demands an end to the blockade, withdrawal of US forces and compensation. Washington, meanwhile, is relying increasingly on sanctions and pressure. But the more important question is what happens next. The danger is not necessarily that a full-scale regional war begins tomorrow. The greater danger is a chain reaction of limited confrontations that gradually becomes impossible to control. The Strait of Hormuz remains a central flashpoint, while tensions involving Gulf States, Lebanon, Israel and armed groups across the region create multiple opportunities for miscalculation. Reuters has described the conflict as increasingly appearing to operate on “autopilot”, with shipping disrupted and regional tensions multiplying. Gaza adds another layer of volatility. Recent US-led efforts to revive a political roadmap have produced no breakthrough. Talks involving Jared Kushner, Israel and Hamas ended with fundamental disagreements still unresolved, particularly over the sequence of Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes have continued despite the ceasefire framework. This is precisely why the Middle East cannot afford diplomacy that treats ceasefires as endpoints rather than bridges. A ceasefire is valuable only if it creates political space for something more........

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