The question echoing across diplomatic corridors and ordinary households alike is deceptively simple: how long will the current war in the Middle East last? Yet the answer remains stubbornly elusive. Wars in this region rarely follow neat timelines; instead, they expand, mutate and linger long after the first missiles are fired. The current conflict traces its immediate origins to the Gaza war that began after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza. However, its roots run far deeper — into decades of unresolved political grievances, cycles of retaliation and a regional order built on fragile deterrence. These structural realities make quick conclusions unlikely. Several factors will determine the war’s duration. First is the military calculus. Israel has repeatedly stated that its objective is the dismantling of Hamas’s governing and military capabilities. Such goals, historically, are difficult to achieve quickly. Insurgent movements embedded within densely populated urban environments rarely disappear through military force alone. Even if large-scale operations wind down, low-intensity conflict may persist for years. Second is regional escalation. What began as a Gaza-centered war has periodically threatened to widen. Skirmishes along the Israel–Lebanon border involving Hezbollah, attacks by regional militias and tensions involving Iran have created the constant risk of a broader confrontation. Should these fronts ignite simultaneously, the conflict could transform into a multi-theatre regional war — extending its timeline dramatically. Third is international diplomacy. The involvement of the United States, Arab states and European powers has produced intermittent ceasefire proposals and humanitarian pauses. Yet diplomacy faces a central dilemma: the parties’........

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