Talk of a recession in Australia has picked up in recent weeks.

Rising fuel prices, a sharp fall in consumer confidence and signs of softer spending have all added to concerns the economy may be losing momentum.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. By that standard, Australia is not there yet – but the key question is what the data are telling us about the likelihood of getting there.

The answer depends on which data you look at.

Backward data – still resilient

Let’s start with the national accounts, the broadest measure of how the economy is travelling. The December quarter was solid, with annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth running at 2.6 per cent.

That was the fastest growth in almost three years and is not an economy in recession. It suggests activity remained reasonably resilient heading into 2026, supported by ongoing demand and broadly strong economic conditions.

But the national accounts report is backward-looking. It tells us where the economy has been, not necessarily where it is going.

Recent data – momentum slowing

More timely indicators show hints of a slowdown.

Since the war in Iran began five weeks ago and pushed local petrol and diesel prices higher, consumer confidence has........

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