“The only thing I am concentrating on when it comes to fuel is supply,” said Anthony Albanese when pushed on gas taxes at a mining breakfast on Wednesday.

He also clarified that the federal budget, to be handed down in just a couple of weeks, “will not undermine existing contracts on gas exports”.

Albanese speaks in riddles. No one can say definitively whether he ruled out a gas tax or not, which is why the response was so varied. But the winds are blowing as if he won’t, at least not in any way that will bring about something meaningful for the electorate. As to why, the reasons are varied.

When you ask Labor MPs why the government is so obstinate on what seems an easy win – more revenue and also a nod towards some sort of rebalance – they point to places like Queensland and Western Australia and how they like having caucus members from both states.

Which is a very captured way of thinking. The WA and Queensland governments are very mining friendly but that doesn’t mean all the people are – or indeed that they don’t want to see resource companies pay their fair share.

Polling in both states has surprised Labor figures, given the popularity of the idea in regions they considered it a vote killer. But when your circle of influence is narrow and focused in one direction – towards capital – it tends to dull all other voices. At least at first.

Labor is convinced it can increase its majority at the next election, and if there is an opportunity to go early, it will take it. Its eye is on the Liberal and National seats........

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