For many years, national security experts have urged the United States to implement decisive measures to address the escalating national security threat posed by the dictatorship in Venezuela. On January 3, the Trump administration took action through a sophisticated military operation that successfully removed Nicolas Maduro from Caracas, subsequently leading to his imprisonment in New York. Although the special operation was carried out flawlessly, the strategy for Venezuela’s shift towards freedom, democracy, and prosperity remains unclear.

As this intricate situation develops, there are seven key factors that observers ought to focus on to navigate the country’s future trajectory:

On January 5, Politico reported that the Trump administration had made four demands of the new government under interim president Delcy Rodriguez. These consisted of:

These demands resonate with the 2025 National Security Strategy, which aims to establish a stable Western Hemisphere to mitigate mass migration, create regional partnerships to combat transnational criminal organizations, and eliminate hostile foreign incursions or ownership of critical assets by US adversaries.

For now, Rodriguez has focused on cementing her position in power. These actions have included her endorsement of Nicolás Maduro as the duly elected president of the country—recently stating that “there is only one President here, and his name is Nicolás Maduro.” Instead of directly challenging the United States, these remarks were intended to rally initial backing from the loyalists of the regime. Notwithstanding these public declarations, however, multiple reports suggest that Rodriguez remains open to collaborating with the United States.

The United States is adopting a carrot-and-stick strategy to secure Rodriquez’s compliance. As a punitive measure for Caracas, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has asserted that he will deploy US maritime forces positioned offshore to oversee the transportation of Venezuelan oil. On the other hand, the carrot for good behavior is a proposed $100 billion US corporate investment in Venezuelan oil infrastructure and capacity—although that investment has yet to materialize.

The main indication of collaboration will occur when US forces allow the sale of Venezuelan crude.

The Trump administration has been walking a razor’s edge in terms of achieving US domestic support for the military intervention. After all, Trump ran for president under the pledge of no new foreign wars, and his “MAGA” base is generally more concerned with a domestic agenda than a foreign one. Conversely, Trump’s opponents on the American left have dubbed the operation as US imperialism run amok, while many in the middle have expressed support for Maduro’s ouster but skepticism of the president’s unilateral actions.

In reaction, Trump has sought to invigorate his support base by centering his discourse on US dominance over Venezuelan oil and the possible financial benefits for the US economy. Still, US domestic support is decidedly mixed, with........

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