Two Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) F-16 fighter jets positioned for takeoff in Hualien, Taiwan, in October 2022. Though Taiwan’s F-16s are the backbone of its fighter jet fleet, they stand little chance against a full-on Chinese attack. (Shutterstock/Wirestock Creators)

Taiwan Can’t Defeat China in the Air. Does It Need To?

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Taiwan’s air force is puny compared to China’s—but it forms only one part of the anti-access/air denial (A2/AD) bubble covering the island.

The airspace and waters around Taiwan remain one of the most contested geographies in the world. China has sought to control Taiwan since 1949, when the Communist Party defeated the Kuomintang and exiled it to the island. Although Beijing sought diplomatic links with Taiwan from the 1990s onward and promoted its return to the fold under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle, its stance toward the island has grown steadily more hostile over the past 15 years, and its naval and air exercises in the region have ramped up. A commonly-cited claim in Washington speculates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to have his military ready to invade the island by 2027.

Of course, Taiwan might not defend itself alone. But then again, it might. The United States has always been ambiguous about whether or not it would come to the island’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion; while President Joe Biden repeatedly suggested that his administration would, President Donald Trump has been far more cagey. Indeed, a key purpose of China’s conventional buildup of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is to pose a greater threat to the United States, raising the costs of intervention for Washington and allowing the Communist Party to present the........

© The National Interest