European Union flag over barrels of oil. As oil production declines in key exporting countries, Europe faces a growing challenge to secure reliable long-term energy supplies. (Shutterstock/dmitrii selivanov)

Europe’s Next Energy Security Challenge: Terminal Oil Production Decline

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Europe has reduced its reliance on Russian oil, but geological limits on global oil production could become the next major challenge to long-term energy security.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union (EU) has altered its approach to energy security. It has reduced its dependence on Russian oil through diversifying its supplier base and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. These efforts have strengthened Europe’s capacity to resist coercive energy diplomacy. Yet Europe’s energy transition has not eliminated its dependence on imported oil. Oil remains essential for transportation, industry, and petrochemicals, and the EU continues to rely heavily on external suppliers to meet its energy needs. In 2025 alone, the European Union imported approximately 435 million tonnes (Mt) of crude oil, valued at more than €212 billion.

Much of Europe’s energy security debate has focused on geopolitical disruptions, and far........

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