Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner walk to a joint news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 6, 2026. Russia has shown little interest in moderating its war aims in exchange for a renewal of energy trade with Europe, writes Andreas Umland. (Shutterstock/Paparazzza)

Why a Russia Gas Deal Can’t Buy Peace in Ukraine

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Prematurely restarting Europe’s energy trade with Russia will only reward Russia’s aggression without securing meaningful changes in its behavior.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the resumption of the energy trade between Russia and Europe has been a common feature of most peace proposals. On October 17, The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have urged Kyiv and European capitals to consider resuming Russian gas flows through Ukraine’s extensive pipeline network as part of a peace settlement. The logic is straightforward: since both Moscow and Kyiv would profit commercially, such cooperation could pave the way for a ceasefire. The report of the suggestion followed the Trump administration’s announcement of a deal to buy 2.25 million barrels of Russian diesel on October 9.

American and Russian representatives have also discussed restarting the surviving Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea—something the White House denies was the subject of recent negotiations. The gas idea follows another inducement floated at talks in Miami earlier this month: a US proposal to unfreeze part of Russia’s immobilized central bank assets and place them under Washington’s control, which European officials rejected.

Is this a sensible bargain or a poisoned chalice? The answer depends far less on Kyiv than on Moscow.

If such an economic arrangement could deliver a ceasefire, Kyiv would likely agree to resume Russian gas transit across its territory—and might also not object to gas flowing again through the Baltic Sea. Since early 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly endorsed both a comprehensive ceasefire and partial moratoria on strikes against energy infrastructure and on hostilities in the Black Sea. On March 11, 2025, in Jeddah, Ukraine accepted a US proposal for an immediate 30-day truce. Russia did not. In June 2026, Zelensky said that freezing the current front line in eastern and southern Ukraine was “the quickest way” to stop the war.

Over the past two years, Ukraine’s interest in ending the fighting has grown so strong that Kyiv has dropped its........

© The National Interest