President Donald Trump announces American-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. (The White House/Wikimedia Commons)

How the US Can Sustain Deterrence After Khamenei

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The end of the Islamic Republic is a tremendous opportunity for Iran and poses serious risks for regional stability. The United States should be prepared.

President Donald Trump has long argued that deterrence of US adversaries, once eroded, must be restored decisively. In confronting the Iranian regime and eliminating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he acted consistently with that doctrine.

When intelligence assessments concluded that Tehran was stalling diplomatically while expanding destabilizing activity, and after US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s high-stakes negotiations in Geneva that helped shape the president’s judgment on Iranian seriousness, the administration recalibrated. Its objective was clear: reestablish credible deterrence and signal that gray-zone aggression would no longer go unanswered.

That clarity matters. But restoring deterrence is only the first step. Strategy cannot end at retaliation. It must anticipate what comes next.

It is a mistake to treat the Islamic Republic as a personality-driven regime. It is not a system that will collapse simply upon the removal of a single leader. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not merely a special branch of the military; it is an ideological institution, an intelligence network, and an economic conglomerate embedded deeply within the state.

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