Political scientists studying farmer and peasant mobilisation have converged on a simple sequence to explain when ordinary economic pain turns into political upheaval. An external shock — a price spike, a currency collapse, a tax hike — creates material grievance. Those with access to power seek redress quietly, through political channels. Only those locked out of that access, but organised enough to coordinate, take their grievance to the street. And critically: whether that protest stays local or goes national depends on how much of the public shares the grievance, and how credible their memory is of who is responsible.

Pakistan is living through a case study of exactly this logic, and the details are almost too neat.

In the spring of 2022, global oil prices were pushing towards $150 a barrel-equivalent, and the government of the day had extended a subsidy that kept the petroleum levy at effectively zero, cushioning consumers from the full force of the shock. Whatever the fiscal wisdom of that decision, its political logic was unmistakable: it was framed, loudly, as a shield for the poor against an external shock they had no hand in causing. Weeks later, that government fell to a vote of no confidence. The coalition that replaced it made the subsidy — and the elite's alleged indifference to........

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