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The Schedule, Not the Surprise

69 0
04.08.2026

By late July 2026, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the monsoon that had begun just weeks earlier had already claimed 97 lives, injured 297 people and destroyed more than 440 homes across Pakistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa bore the highest toll. Large areas of Punjab’s cities—Lahore and Gujranwala—lay under water, not only because of intense rainfall but also because of clogged drains and neglected waterways.

This was never a story about rainfall. It was a story about governance.

On March 13, 2026, I warned that the window for preparation was closing. The monsoon arrives every year. So do the warnings. So do the promises. And every year, the same districts flood for the same reasons—not because the water is unpredictable, but because the institutions that should prevent disaster have failed to act on what they already know.

This is not a surprise. This is a schedule.

In March 2026, I questioned whether the government’s November 2025 “Fix, Expand and Build” strategy—which promised critical infrastructure repairs within 200 to 250 days—would actually deliver before the monsoon arrived. The National Disaster Management Authority had projected that this monsoon would be 22 to 26 per cent more intense than that of 2025, when floods killed more than a thousand people. Below-normal snowfall and unusually warm glacier conditions had accelerated runoff into lakes that were already swollen.

By July, six months into that timeline, there was no public........

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