The ongoing US-Israel combine’s assault on Iran is engendering critical ramifications which are already influencing geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic dynamics at the global, regional and sub-regional levels.

At the geopolitical level, the US appears to be getting the worst of it. The limits of its power and coercive policies are becoming glaringly evident. It is becoming increasingly isolated in the geopolitical arena. Ominously, its erstwhile allies in Europe, the Indo-Pacific (Australia, India, Japan, South Korea etc) and Asia have not mustered to its ranks. It has unmatched military might, but the same cannot be said of its diplomatic clout, moral high ground and ascendancy any more. Europe, chastened and hurt by President Trump’s blatantly coercive policies and demeaning rhetoric, his handling of the Ukraine imbroglio and Russia, his conduct of NATO affairs, and the imposition of an abrasive, unilateral trade and tariff war on it, has baulked at joining this war against Iran. It does not own this war. Period. Critically, the Europeans have refused to join President Trump’s efforts to force open the Hormuz Straits too, which are effectively controlled by the Iranians. The Gulf Arab states, on the other hand, appear to be caught in no-man’s-land. The optics of them assisting the US-Israel combine against Muslim Iran would be devastating, yet they feel constrained to defend themselves too. Have the US bases in the Gulf Arab states turned out to be assets or liabilities? The Gulf Arab states will need to realistically ascertain their relative importance vis-à-vis Israel to the US and then decide/recalibrate their future courses of action. Finally, both PM Netanyahu and President Trump face domestic elections this year, and a victory in Iran would boost their chances enormously. Conversely, were Iran to just survive this war, it could affect their prospects in the respective elections quite adversely!

At the geostrategic level, the US-Israel combine was totally surprised by the defiance, political and military will, resolve, resilience and grit demonstrated by the Iranians. They have suffered crucial losses and the decapitation of their political and military leaderships, but have persisted with renewed determination. Iran absorbed the initial US-Israel onslaught and then went up the escalation ladder in a very graduated and controlled manner. The US-Israel combine tactfully targets oil and gas fields and installations in Iran, which compels the latter to attack oil and gas fields in the Gulf Arab states - a win-win situation for the former and a lose-lose one for the Arabs and Iran! Furthermore, Iran has gradually increased the costs of the war for its adversaries by attacking targets in Israel, US bases in the Gulf Arab states, oil tankers and shipping, and has now blocked the Hormuz Straits to ships/tankers that have links to the US and Israel. It has forced countries like India, France, Italy etc to seek its permission to get their tankers/ships through the Hormuz Straits. Furthermore, it has reduced the US to asking its European and Indo-Pacific allies, and even China, to send their naval ships to help clear the Iranian blockade of the Hormuz Straits. None have shown any inclination to do so. The gravest strategic faux pas was committed by PM Netanyahu when he declared that this war was intended to fulfil divine injunctions and prophecies! Surely, Providence would have chosen better specimens of its creatures to realise its ordained prophecies and commandments! Giving a religious tinge to this war could be counter-productive too. In response, a call for an ostensible “jihad in Iran” could very well instigate a massive movement of Shia supporters from Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other Shia-dominant areas towards Iran, and escalate the war uncontrollably. (Mission Iran, by this scribe, The Nation, 02 & 10 July 2019). Religion, once woven into geopolitical imperatives, makes for a heady and deadly concoction that could add unintended, unmanageable escalations and dimensions to the war. Critically, there appear to be no plans if a defiant Iran refuses to capitulate and continues to expand the time and space dimensions of the war. US and Israeli strategic objectives tend to diverge a bit here. Israel intends not only to degrade Iran’s military-nuclear-missile-drone/UCAV capabilities and destroy its economic capacities, but also to usher in regime change, while the US seems intent upon the strategic disarmament of Iran, denying it all capacities to project power and making it incapable of threatening it or its allies. The Israelis also fear that the US might just unilaterally declare victory and walk away from the war zone!

At the geoeconomic level too, critical ramifications have emerged. The prices of oil and gas have shot through the stratosphere, with debilitating effects on regional and global economies. The blockade of the Hormuz Straits has further compounded these miseries. The effects are worldwide, as about 20% of its oil and gas supplies go through the Hormuz Straits. Crucially, the prices of petroleum products in the US have risen quite substantially. This could affect the results of the mid-term elections too. The overall effect of the blockade at the Hormuz Straits has been so enormous that the US has felt compelled to allow Russia to sell its oil on the international market - shocking the Europeans once again!

This war will cause a basic paradigm shift in the geopolitical architecture of the GMER. Critical strategic space for external players will materialise, much to the detriment of the US-Israel combine’s interests. It will instigate newer alignments and strategic partnerships, defence configurations and alliances that correspond to the emerging strategic environment. They might not be US-centric at all. Furthermore, post-President Trump’s visit to China, a bi-multipolar world order may emerge which will truly reflect the evolving geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic realities!

Imran MalikThe writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.

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