This will undoubtedly be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent history. In the past two years, policies enacted by President Trump and enabled by a compliant Republican-led Congress have had a corrosive impact on the very foundations of governance and our democracy.

As a result, the stakes are high for both parties in November. For Democrats, the election represents the opportunity to roll back changes Mr. Trump has imposed on Washington and the nation, expose questionable business transactions benefiting the president and his family, and re-establish congressional oversight and prerogatives. For the president, winning this election represents his only chance to continue freely wreaking havoc in Washington and the world and avoiding congressional investigations into his unethical and illegal behaviours.

With just six weeks left before Election Day, the news media and political prognosticators usually turn to pollsters and pundits to better understand expected electoral outcomes. In a normal year, analysts will review a few standard metrics to project likely results—favourable ratings of the president and two major parties; whether........

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