With United States and Israeli missiles over Iranian skies and much of the Islamic Republic’s leadership already eliminated, the implications of the assault on Iran will reverberate throughout the Middle East and Eurasia for years to come. 

Across the Caspian Sea, Russian officials are certainly unhappy to see an aligned state under U.S. attack. Yet, while the weakening or potential collapse of an ally is an obviously undesirable outcome, closer inspection reveals more nuanced implications for Moscow and the war in Ukraine.

Having once backed international efforts to pressure Iran over its nuclear program, Russia and Iran increasingly found a common anti-Western cause in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the first years of the war, Moscow's growing partnership with Iran provided the Kremlin with tangible benefits.

In terms of material, Russia famously sourced its Shahed-series drones from Iran starting in 2022. These drones have gone on to be one of Russia’s central tools in campaigns against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. Weapons deals went both ways, including a $580 million agreement for Iran to receive shoulder-mounted systems reported just days prior to Washington’s attack. 

Russia’s partnership with Iran also provided valuable institutional learning opportunities. In the aftermath of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials sought to adapt to an intense sanctions regime of the kind Iran had faced for years and had garnered experience subverting. In 2022, Iranian officials began instructing Russia as to how to keep its oil and gas sectors afloat despite sanctions and providing networks for sanctions evasion. 

No longer deterred by the threat of secondary sanctions, Russia’s economic relationship with Iran........

© The Moscow Times