The war against Ukraine initially came as a shock to Russia’s elites. No one anticipated the impact on their businesses and personal wealth, let alone their country’s place in the world.

Over time, however, the initial shock has been overcome. Russia’s system of power is structured in such a way that the overwhelming majority of its participants do not see themselves as independent political actors. Even if they did, they have no way to change Russia without jeopardizing their own privileged status.

The efforts of Western countries to force change in Russia proved contradictory. On the one hand, extremely serious sanctions were imposed on the economy, financial system, select industrial sectors and individual elites — although not all sectors of the economy were targeted to the same degree.

But this did little to affect Russia’s behavior, in large part because the West didn’t set out clear conditions that would allow sanctions to be lifted. Instead of splitting the elite, sanctions consolidated a significant part of Russia’s ruling class around President Vladimir Putin.

Many had hoped that after the presumed success of the war, some kind of fundamental agreement would be reached with Europe and the United States. 

This initially appeared vindicated by the return of Donald Trump to Washington. Many believed that the re-elected president would force Ukraine into a compromise on terms acceptable to the Kremlin.

But these expectations are not being met either. Despite the contradictory rhetoric of the new U.S. administration, there is no quick exit from the war on terms comfortable for the Kremlin. Moreover, the war itself continues to drag on, along with sanctions and military-political confrontation between Russia and the West persist, with the prospect of further escalation.

For part of the Russian elite, this deadlock is becoming an additional source of irritation. The war is not delivering the expected victory, relations with the West are not normalizing, sanctions remain in place, and the prospects for exiting the conflict without serious political and economic costs are becoming ever less obvious.

Why an Official's Flight to the West Should Worry the Kremlin

The collapse of these expectations is proving especially painful. For many years, Kremlin elites thought conflict with the West would ultimately strengthen Russia. Today, however, it is becoming increasingly clear that the negative situation is taking on a much more long-term and systemic character than may have seemed at the beginning of the war.

Russia’s economic situation is deteriorating noticeably as the initial surge of wartime growth peters out. Moscow’s own data says that the economy is still growing, but more and more economists — including those loyal to the authorities — acknowledge that this growth is........

© The Moscow Times