Just 18 months into his second term and with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, U.S. President Donald Trump has generated a remarkable number of geopolitical shocks: the announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” in April 2025, the military operation in Venezuela in January 2026 and the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran the following month.

The volatility of the Trump administration’s foreign policy has become a major source of uncertainty, accelerating change in international affairs and making the global environment increasingly unpredictable.

So what changes has his administration brought to the world in its second term? How does today’s international environment differ from the one before Trump’s return to power? Although the administration has yet to reach the midpoint of its term and much remains uncertain ahead of the midterms, enough has occurred to warrant a broader assessment. Understanding these changes is essential to grasping the transformation of the international order now underway.

At the center of the Trump administration’s foreign policy lies a fundamental question: How should the United States manage its relationship with China?

The modern era of U.S.-China relations was shaped by the concept of “great-power competition,” first articulated in the Trump administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy. After years of counterterrorism-focused policy following the Sept. 11 attacks, Washington increasingly viewed the rise of China — and, to a lesser extent, Russia — as the defining strategic challenge of the 21st century. Great-power competition, particularly strategic competition with China, became the organizing principle of U.S. national strategy.

This framework continued under the Biden administration. Concerns over economic security, supply chains, advanced technologies and military modernization further intensified rivalry between Washington and Beijing across economic and security domains.

The second Trump administration, however, has introduced a new element. Trump has repeatedly described Xi Jinping as “my friend” and argued that “great deals” can be reached with China. His assertion that “everything is negotiable” has raised concerns........

© The Japan Times