The military confrontation involving the United States, Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran reached an unprecedented boiling point this week. U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric of annihilation, warning on Tuesday that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran’s leaders failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggered widespread panic across global markets.

In the first five weeks of the conflict, the closure of the strait, responsible for roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil supply, sent crude prices soaring beyond historic highs. Amid this geopolitical turbulence, an unexpected diplomatic initiative emerged, surprising many Western observers but appearing entirely logical to those familiar with South Asian dynamics: the Islamabad Accord. Spearheaded by Pakistan with full strategic backing from China, the initiative succeeded in reaching a two-week ceasefire — tenuous as it may be — and shifting the center of global diplomacy to Islamabad.

Islamabad’s success in brokering a ceasefire was the product of intensive backchannel diplomacy involving both Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership, leveraging personal trust and regional strategic obligations. Trump himself acknowledged Pakistan as an actor that understands Iran “better than anyone,” a recognition of Islamabad’s unique position as an intermediary between two entrenched adversaries.

© The Japan Times