This week marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. No one expected the war — except for a handful of intelligence analysts (more on that below) — and fewer anticipated that it would be continuing four years later. It’s time to take stock of the many lessons of that enduring conflict; they are sobering.

First, the warning that “Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow” proved false, if that meant that the invasion presaged an imminent threat to Taiwan. The world did not immediately become more lawless nor did the Ukraine war distract regional governments and prevent them from focusing on other potential crises at the same time. There has been no sudden surge in conflicts as other leaders copied Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adventurism and rushed off to invade their neighbors.

If, however, that catchphrase was a warning that the supposed inviolability of borders was a fiction and that bloody destructive land wars were no longer a remnant of a distant past, then it served its purpose. That lesson assumes greater significance in the wake of the brilliant and heart-stopping reporting by the Guardian about how European governments, and even that of Ukraine itself, ignored or dismissed intelligence from the U.S. and the United Kingdom that Russia was ready to invade.

© The Japan Times