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Why did economists get the impact of Brexit on Ireland so wrong?

26 0
26.06.2026

Remember all the dire predictions a decade ago about the damage the Irish economy would suffer as a result of Brexit? Experts queued up to forecast that the State would be hit even harder than the UK by the decision of the British people to leave the EU.

But guess what? There was no hit at all. Not alone has the Irish economy boomed over the past decade but trade with the UK has risen steadily. Exports of goods from the Republic to the UK have more than doubled from just under €11 billion at the time of Brexit to €24.5 billion last year.

Food and drink exports to the UK, which were widely touted as facing a collapse after Brexit, were worth a record €6.7 billion last year, almost three times their value before the referendum in June 2016, still accounting for 35 per cent of the total. Trade between the Republic and Northern Ireland has also reached record levels, with about €5.5 billion worth going in either direction last year.

So why were economics experts so wrong? Was it simply another example of the futility of economic forecasting or were there unforeseen upsides to the referendum decision? To be fair, economists were right about the damage Brexit would do to the UK.

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