A couple of weeks back, I had a slightly surreal moment on RTÉ Radio. I was asked to come on to talk about whether Irish people should start growing their own food in response to escalating tensions in the Gulf. Alongside me was a guest selling emergency blackout kits, which made it all sound a little “end-of-days” apocalyptic. A few texters to the show accused us of scaremongering, but actually I don’t think enough people are talking about the fact that Ireland’s food security is an illusion.

Let’s think big picture. Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar was fond of saying that Ireland produces enough food to feed 50 million people and it’s true that we rank second in the Global Food Security Index. But scratch the surface of that and you find a different picture. Most of our food production here is geared for export (90 per cent of all food produced here, according to Ibec) and predominantly focused on meat and dairy (€12.3 billion of our total exports of €19 billion in 2025). So we could feed 50 million people, perhaps, as long as they are happy to subsist on beef and dairy.

Alarmingly, at a moment of acute global uncertainty, when food security should be a priority, we are heavily reliant on imports for many parts of the national diet and even to produce all those exports. We imported a total of €11.4 billion in food in 2025. Farmers import two-thirds of their animal feed and almost all of the fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides they use to produce food. Incidentally, a third of the world’s fertilisers pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

We also import the vast majority of the grain we use to make bread and 83 per cent of the fresh vegetables and fruit we eat, all of which are important parts of the national plate. It used to be that most of our fruit and veg imports were exotics we can’t grow here such as bananas, or produce coming from big European veg-producing nations such as the Netherlands to fill seasonal gaps. These days, however, our supermarket shelves look more and more like a United Nations of vegetables, with “fresh” produce coming from North and South America, Africa, India, New Zealand and China. This includes crops we can and do grow, including apples, tomatoes, cucumbers, carrots, onions, garlic and broccoli, sometimes even when they are in season here.

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Our domestic veg and fruit sector is collapsing. According to Bord Bia, we have just 74 field-scale vegetable growers left, down from about 600 in the 1990s. More growers are exiting the space each year, and recently a provisional liquidator was appointed to a grower in Kilkenny that produced 12 per cent of the national carrot crop. These growers have been squeezed out by rising costs and relentless price pressure.

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According to economist Jim Power, in the 20 years between February 2006 and February 2026, while the overall consumer price index (CPI) increased by 38.9 per cent and food prices increased by 16.7 per cent, vegetable prices increased by just 7 per cent. Between 2006 and 2021 veg prices actually fell by 13.5 per cent. Little wonder that growers are exiting the sector. Because horticulture relies on generational knowledge, skills and assets built up over decades, once these growers leave the sector, they cannot be replaced quickly or easily.

This has not happened by accident. The policies of successive governments have prioritised an export-led agricultural system leveraging the big beasts of beef and dairy, while ignoring the needs of our indigenous veg and fruit growers. Supermarket pricing practices – and in particular the aggressive price promotions where vegetables are used as loss leaders – have played a significant role in undermining domestic production too.

Ireland’s food security relies on cheap oil (for the production, packaging and transport of food) and a stable world that facilitates the smooth movement of goods. That world no longer exists. Given how our food system is set up here, we are brutally exposed to the vagaries of geopolitical conflict, climate disruption and rising energy costs. If the first phase of the war in the Gulf is about oil and fuel, the second phase will be about food. And because food is slow (its production and its transport) we haven’t even begun to see the impact of the war on global food production and supply yet.

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Recent events here in Ireland should focus minds on how foolish we are to rely on imports and just-in-time distribution systems, whether that be for fuel or food. How many more days of blockade would it have taken before the supermarket shelves emptied? There’s an old maxim that we are only ever nine meals from anarchy. I worry that the disruption we’ve witnessed in the last week is merely a dress rehearsal for the real thing. I hope we’ve learned from it.

The veg sector may be a small part of our agriculture system, but since it’s an important part of the national plate, it is strategically important. If we are serious about food security, it should be treated as essential infrastructure. That means providing a universal basic income for our growers, comparable to supports available elsewhere in the farming sector. That they do not get that currently is a national scandal. It also means giving real teeth to the agri-food regulator to address below-cost selling and unfair trading practices. And it means creating the conditions for a new generation of small-scale growers to enter the sector. By having a greater number of smaller, local producers in the system, particularly those not reliant on imported chemicals (ie organic), we would create more resilience and protection from global shocks.

There is also a role for us as consumers in redressing the balance. It will require a shift in our priorities and requires us to place as much value on seasonality, freshness and local production as we do on convenience and price. Yes, affordable food is critically important. But we must also recognise that there is always a cost to cheap food.

Ireland exports the vast majority of what we produce, while importing most of its fresh produce. We are not food secure in any meaningful sense. The risks are no longer theoretical. At a time of extreme global volatility, we should place food security at the top of the list of what we want from our food system.

Mick Kelly is founder of GIY

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