One of the less endearing characteristics of professional political commentators is their caution against being proven wrong in the future. The result, frequently, is bet-hedging, vagueness in editorial style, a blend of the lofty, vacuous and the ambiguous.

As a counterpoint, I pose the question as to where we will be in one year’s time. Crystal ball gazing is, admittedly, difficult in a period of international instability. But attempting to judge the direction of current events is nonetheless useful as it gives us some sense of perspective. In that spirit, I raise some possibilities and make some predictions.

US midterms: Donald Trump’s Republican Party will probably lose control of at least one of the Houses of Congress in the midterm elections this November. This will render the second half of his second term in office a lame-duck presidency. No longer in a position to legislate or to formulate budget the Maga regime in the White House will be severely weakened. The only constraint on the House of Representatives will be an understandable desire on the part of Democrats to avoid undermining whoever they select as their presidential candidate in 2028.  

Trump’s designs on Cuba: In a sane world, such a midterm outcome would tend to create a context for some degree of political conciliation between Republicans and........

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